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Friday, November 2, 2007

Will a share of Google be worth more than an ounce of gold?

They’re less than $100 apart now. Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) has had an incredible run-up — far higher than I ever thought it would go, honestly. I thought the IPO was high at ~$100. It was within a buck of $700 at one point yesterday. Shows you how much I know — after all, the market is always right. GOOG closed over $15 higher on buzz of the Google Phone.

Gold, as well, has had a great run-up. It’s teasing $800 per ounce after blowing through $700 around Labor Day. Any number of reasons could explain the buying: a weakening dollar, increased tensions with Iran, the problems with the credit markets, the housing slump. Whatever the reason, people like gold these days.

Both are susceptible to drops in a recession. Gold might be sold to raise cash as necessary, or businesses will cut back on their AdWords advertising to meet payroll. Gold doesn’t answer to anybody, but Google must publish financial statements and must deliver earnings to stay in investor demand.

Man, if only my crystal ball were out of the shop. Any prognosticators out there?

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